Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
