🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office by the month's conclusion rose in the period preceding President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000. It remains unclear. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," stated Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other individuals also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Politicians are starting to take note. A bill put forward on Monday would prevent public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to politics. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."